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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.